Certain, probable, unlikely, and impossible

Learning Objectives Define the terms certain, probable, unlikely, and impossible. Identify an event as certain, probable, unlikely, or impossible based on a given scenario. Place events on a simple probability line from impossible to certain. Provide an example of an event for each category (certain, probable, unlikely, impossible). Compare the likelihood of two different events using the key terms. Explain why an event is classified as certain, probable, unlikely, or impossible. If you flip a coin, will it land on your head? 🤔 Let's learn about the chances of things happening! In this lesson, we will explore the language of chance. You will learn how to describe if something will definitely happen, might happen, or will never happen. This helps us make smart guesses...

TermDefinitionExample EventSomething that happens, like rolling a dice or picking a marble from a bag.Picking a red crayon from a box of crayons is an event. CertainSomething that will definitely, 100% happen. There is no other option.If you have a bag with only green apples, it is certain you will pick a green apple. ProbableSomething that has a good chance of happening. It will happen more often than not.If a spinner has 3 blue sections and 1 red section, it is probable it will land on blue. UnlikelySomething that does not have a good chance of happening. It could happen, but it probably won't.If a spinner has 1 blue section and 3 red sections, it is unlikely it will land on blue. ImpossibleSomething that can never, ever happen. There is a 0% chance.It is impossible to roll a 7 on...

The Probability Scale Impossible < Unlikely < Probable < Certain This scale helps us order events from least likely to most likely to happen. Impossible events have no chance, and certain events will always happen. Counting to Compare Likelihood is related to: (Number of wanted outcomes) vs (Total number of outcomes) To decide if something is probable or unlikely, we can count. If the number of ways an event can happen is more than half of the total possibilities, it's probable. If it's less than half, it's unlikely.